June 2016
|
World Coal
|
5
Coal News
Coal News
T
he US coal industry faces over
two decades of contraction
according to the US Energy Information
Administration’s (EIA)
Annual Energy
Outlook 2016
(
AEO2016
) Early Release,
as natural gas and renewables eat into its
market share – even without the Clean
Power Plan (CPP).
With the CPP, however, coal production
ends up around 250 million short t lower
than without the CPP at around
640 million short t.
Implementation of the CPP sees
coal-fired generation fall by 32% between
2015 and 2040, according to the
AEO2016
Early Release, as natural gas replaces coal
in the energy mix. Under the
AEO2016
’s
Reference Case – which includes the CPP
– coal’s share of the energy mix would fall
to just 18% from 33% in 2015. Natural gas’s
share rises to 38% in 2014, while
renewables account for 27%.
Even under the No CPP Case, coal’s
share of the energy mix falls to 2040,
ending at 26% compared to 34% for natural
gas. It does stay ahead of renewables,
however, which account for 23% of the
energy mix.
Under both Reference and No CPP
Cases, however, little new coal-fired
capacity is added, cementing a structural
shift away from coal in the US energy mix.
As a result, under the Reference Case,
US coal production falls from about
870 million short t in 2015 to
830 million short t in 2022 and then to
664 million short t in 2030. In the No CPP
Case, coal production rises slightly to
914 million short t to 2030 but then
trends lower through to 2040.
“Even without the CPP, near-term coal
plant retirements, competitive natural gas
prices and renewables expansion continue
to limit a recovery in the coal mining
industry,” the EIA said.
Regionally, the West Region – which
includes the Powder River Basin – sees
most impact from implementation of the
CPP, accounting for 58% of the total decline
in production to 2030 as states that are
significant users of Western coal see
large-scale coal plant retirements.
Appalachian coal production suffers
less substantial falls over the forecast
period – although that may largely be
because the region has already seen a
substantial contraction in its coal
production. By 2040, Appalachian coal
production will become increasingly
dependent on exports, which will account
for 67% of its production.
There is better news for the Interior Region
– which includes the Illinois Basin – where
coal production actually rises under the No
CPPCase as the high-sulfur content of its coal
is mitigated by increased use of emissions
control equipment at power plants.
Although production drops under the
Reference Case, Interior Region production
overtakes Appalachian production by 2020
and it remains the second-largest producer
behind the Western Region through to 2040.
INTERNATIONAL
New CIAB report highlights importance of coal for energy security
C
oal is a key component of a
secure energy supply, according
to a new study from the IEA Coal
Industry Advisory Board (CIAB), which
assesses the impact of coal use on energy
security in several important world
regions.
“The use of coal contributes not only to
affordable energy prices, allowing broader
access to electricity but also improved
industrial competitiveness of the
economy,” the CIAB said in a press release
highlighting the key findings of the
report.
The report also found that coal use
should work together with the use of
renewable generation to bring down
greenhouse gas emissions: “Coal and
renewables complement each other and
are partners in the effort to meet present
and future energy requirements,” said
Dr Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Leader of the
CIAB Energy Security Working Group
and Lead Author of the report.
“Coal-fired power plants provide
dispatchable capacity due to their ability
to operate flexibly and so compensate for
the fluctuations of wind and solar energy
supply. In addition, coal-fired power
plants can also be seen as an economic
balance to the higher system costs of most
renewable energies.”
The report concludes that there needs
to be an increase in support for
high‑efficiency low-emissions (HELE)
coal-fired power plants and carbon
capture and storage (CCS) technologies in
order to keep coal within the energy mix,
while meeting commitments to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
“It is recommended that governments
promote these technology solutions in
order to improve their acceptance and
provide a legal framework, which allows
investment in these advanced
technologies,” the CIAB concludes.
“As the Paris Agreement is formally
adopted, it is vitally important that its
implementation integrates environmental
imperatives with the aims of universal
access to energy, energy security and
social and economic development. All
low-carbon technologies must play a role,
including HELE coal technology and
CCS,” said Benjamin Sporton, CEO of the
World Coal Association in response to the
release of the report.
USA
A bleak outlook for coal as EIA releases its Annual Energy Outlook 2016
